School Committees Versus Centralized Targeting. The Case of High-School Scholarships in Mexico. Latest version: February 2020
Abstract
Two alternative ways to select beneficiaries of a cash transfer program implemented in
Mexican high-schools are contrasted. One method follows the ranking of applicants suggested by a school committee while the other is based on a centrally-formed needs-based
ranking. Of the beneficiaries selected, 62% would have been chosen regardless while 38%
depend on the procedure randomly assigned to their school. Evidence suggest that committees: (i) sacrifice poverty of the grantees in exchange of merit, (ii) better identify falsification of information and (iii) follow a procedure that is not possible to replicate using
a classification algorithm. If assigned via committees, school outcomes show a 3.1 p.p.
increase in dropout rates, which contrasts with a 0.18σ increase in GPA and a 5.5 p.p. increase in passing grades. These effects are totally driven by beneficiaries who depend on
the targeting procedure assigned.
Paper | Appendix | Blog
From Means-Tested to Universal Antipoverty Programs: Distributional Consequences and Effects on Dropout,” joint with Roberto Gonzalez-Tellez, Santiago Ochoa and Horacio Reyes. Coming soon
Going Big in Health: Effect of a Large-Scale Preventive Health Policy, with Ricardo Gomez-Carrera and Adrian Rubli. Latest version: May 2025
Abstract
This paper studies how a conditional cash transfer program with an embedded healthcare
component might induce relevant tradeoffs. By improving a previously employed identification
that exploits a sharp discontinuity in progresa’s initial locality-level rollout, we estimate a
sizable 12% increase in outpatient visits at public clinics, mainly driven by children and adults
aged 20-49. This translates into improvements in reproductive healthcare and screenings for
chronic diseases. While the attendance of non-targeted elderly members is not affected, the
program does seem to impose costs by increasing congestion and reducing self-reported quality.
This suggests that the benefits of this policy lever may carry negative unintended effects to the
non-beneficiary population.
Long-Term Effects of PROSPERA on Welfare, with Cristina Barnard and Giacomo de Giorgi. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9002. Latest version: September 2019
Abstract
Los efectos a largo plazo del programa de transferencias condicionales de México, PROSPERA, en los hogares pobres son de gran interés tanto para los responsables de la formulación de políticas como para los académicos. Este trabajo analiza los efectos a largo plazo en el bienestar de los hogares participantes originales y de sus descendientes, aproximadamente 20 años después del inicio del programa. Para complementar otros estudios que analizan los efectos en educación y salud, este análisis se centra en una definición utilitaria del bienestar y emplea dos estrategias empíricas para el análisis. La primera, utiliza el experimento de 1997-2000 como la fuente de variación más limpia, si bien es limitada. El análisis muestra que, para 2017-2018, los descendientes de las familias beneficiarias originales tienen mayor probabilidad de formar sus propios hogares, de emigrar a diferentes localidades y de tener más bienes duraderos y gasto en consumo que su contraparte de control. La segunda estrategia confirma y amplía estos hallazgos con el uso de una metodología de diferencias en diferencias que emplea la expansión del programa en las localidades y la edad de los individuos, como fuente de variación. Este segundo enfoque abarca una muestra mucho más amplia y representativa, y se capta información sobre vulnerabilidad autorreportada respecto al consumo de alimentos. Los resultados confirman el pronóstico positivo general en lo que respecta a bienes duraderos y menor vulnerabilidad alimentaria. Quizá lo más interesante y relevante para evaluar el éxito del programa consiste en que mejoró la movilidad intergeneracional. Con el uso del experimento de 1997-2000, el análisis muestra que los adultos jóvenes beneficiados mejoraron en términos de educación, posesión de bienes e ingresos con respecto a sus padres. Parece que los descendientes de los beneficiarios originales están mejorando su posición relativa en cuanto a bienes e ingresos.
Paper | Appendix | Blog
El Niño and Mexican Children: Medium-Term Effects of Early-Life Weather Shocks on Cognitive and Health Outcomes, with Marta Vicarelli. Revise & Resubmit at World Development. Latest version: June 2021.
Abstract
Evidence has shown that shocks in early life have long-term consequences. This paper contributes to our understanding of the channels. Four years after being exposed to exogenous precipitation anomalies during early stages of life, we examine the effects on key developmental indicators. Children affected present lower cognitive development (measured through language, working and long-term memory and visual-spatial thinking) in the magnitude of 0:14 to 0:16 SDs. Lower height, weight and higher anxiety-depression impacts are also identified. Food consumption and diet composition appear to be key drivers behind these impacts. No mitigation from the delivery of conditional cash transfers is found.
The power of information and motivation on women’s maternal health: an application with ad-hoc SMS in Mexico’s Prospera program, with Manett Vargas. Latest version: August 2018
Abstract
Access to information is a necessary, but not sufficient condition to achieve health improvements. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of four interventions that seek to improve maternal and early childhood health outcomes. The interventions being evaluated focus on empowering, motivating and providing behaviorally-designed messages delivered to beneficiaries by SMS. This paper (the first of a series) investigates the impact of the program on women’s knowledge about adequate care practices, which is a key mechanism to achieve health improvements. For such purpose, an original battery of 21 questions was designed, gathered and analyzed. To assess the impact on knowledge, we compared the responses of two sets of women: one group had already received a key piece of information (through SMS), while the other were still about to receive it. By comparing both groups we find a 12 percent increase in the proportion of correct answers as a result of the information delivery. Interestingly, an intervention focused on framing messages by adding motivationally-charged content achieves an increase in knowledge even before receiving the information, but is later caught up by the rest of the interventions.
Paper | Trial registry | Blog
Educational Self-Selection among U.S. Immigrants and Returning Migrants,” IZA Discussion Paper 7222
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the educational selectivity of United States immigrants and of those that return to their source country. Data from the 1970 to 2000 U.S. Census and the 2010 American Community Survey are employed. Ten countries are selected for the study based on their historical and contemporaneous importance on U.S. migration. The results generally indicate positive selection on educational attainment of recently-arrived immigrants, being China, India, and Philippines the most prominent examples. Mexico does not show evidence of positive or negative selection, but their immigrants’ selectivity has worsened through time. Historically, the educational selectivity of returning migrants accentuated the positive selection of those migrants that stay in the United States in most countries’ cases. However, patterns of selection among migrants that stay have recently changed. A more detailed analysis with data from the last decade finds evidence of positive selection of immigrants staying in the U.S. for the Mexican and Philippines’ case, as well as negative selection for the Chinese. Trends of returning migration are also analyzed by gender, age, naturalization status, and migration spell duration. Mixed evidence of selection trends is found.
Paper | Appendix | Blog
The domino effect in centralized school assignment: the case of Mexico
Abstract
This paper studies the consequences of a human error during the school choice mechanism of
Mexico City public high school system. Using the reported rank-ordered lists of the applicants,
we estimate their indirect utilities and generate cardinal measures of the error’s impact on the
applicants’ utilities. In particular, we found that the median welfare change is negatively correlated
with the educations of the applicants’ mothers (proxy for socioeconomic level).