El Niño and Mexican children: medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks
on cognitive and health outcomes

 Arturo Aguilar                                         Marta Vicarelli
Department of Economics, ITAM           University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurrent climatic event that causes severe weather shocks. This paper employs ENSO-related floods at the end of the agricultural season to identify medium-term effects of negative conditions in early child development. The analysis shows that, four to five years after the shock, children exposed to it during their early stages of life have test scores in language development, working-memory, and visual-spatial thinking abilities that are 11 to 21 percent lower than same aged children not exposed to the shock. Negative effects are also found on anthropometric characteristics: children affected during their early life stages exhibit lower height, higher likelihood of stunting, and lower weight than same aged children not affected by the shock. Negative effects of weather shocks on income, food consumption, and diet composition during early childhood appear to be key mechanisms behind the impacts on children’s outcomes.

Latest version: revised August 2015